Why look at civilisational patterns?

We are aware that many factors contribute to the struggles that education organisations face today. One less visible—but helpful—lens is the pattern of the rise and fall of civilisations.

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Two lenses for reflection

Wheatley offers two sets of lenses to help us reflect on the stage our organisation might be in. First are the behaviours of people unique to each of six ages that every civilisation moves through, as defined by Glubb. These patterns emerge regardless of an empire’s (technological) development or geography, claims Glubb, who studied 13 empires—from Assyria in 859 BCE to Britain in 1950 (cited in Wheatley).

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Glubb

• The Age of Pioneers (fearless invaders attack; shared purpose, strict moral code)

• The Age of Conquest (taking control through military actions; strong religious imperative)

• The Age of Commerce (search for wealth creation, value of profit)

• The Age of Affluence (service ethics disappear, selfishness takes over)

• The Age of Intellect (the arts and knowledge flourish, civil conflict increases)

• The Age of Decadence (wealth and power have led to negative behaviours, e.g. narcissism, consumerism, materialism, nihilism, fanaticism)

 

Based on her work, Wheatley also suggests five dimensions (not an exhaustive list) for reflecting on whether the organisation is in decline:

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Wheatley

• Quality of Relationships (Is there more or less trust, support for each other?)

• Fear Versus Love (What dominates when leaders aim to motivate?)

• Quality of Thinking (How do you respond to crises? Is long-term thinking still happening? Has it made an impact?)

• Willingness to Contribute (What are your expectations for people being willing to step forward? Are those higher or lower?)

• The Role of Money (Do financial considerations carry more weight in organisational decisions today than in the past?)

 

Furthermore, Wheatley describe the decline with the so-called Chaos Cycle, known as a “profound loss of meaning - nothing makes sense the way it used to, no familiar strategies work, confidence and certainty disappear, and we are taken over by doubt, loneliness, and despair.”

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Recognising signs of decline

Participants in our community recognised features of decline in their organisations. Many institutions are expected to implement an unrealistic number of objectives. These often cannot be simply prioritised, as a significant share is prescribed by legislators and funding organisations. As a result, some teams are exhausting themselves over the long run. Yet even within a decline phase, pockets of advanced leadership practice were identified.

It was also observed that many employees have normalised constant chaos, treating it as the new baseline. Yet even when we know what might help in chaos (e.g., pausing and calming down), we rarely apply it.

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From chaos to meaningful change

We cannot run away from the decline, so becoming aware of it is crucial, points out Wheatley. More importantly, she adds, “chaos has its purpose—it is the only path to profound change”. She invites us to be patient until “heightened clarity and intensified meaning” appear, helping us recognise how best to serve during a decline.

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This is our community’s invitation: to keep patiently exploring how to sustain impact and health in VUCA times.

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What’s next — 4 November 2025

If our first meeting explored characteristics of education organisations in decline, our next will focus on possible responses: where opportunities lie for organisations and employees to contribute meaningfully despite decline.

I very much look forward to our next meeting. You are warmly invited to join us.

 

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Reference: 

Wheatley, M. J. (2023). Who do we choose to be? Facing reality, claiming leadership, restoring sanity. Oakland, CA: Berrett-Koehler.